Categories
Arabic

Arabic tounge problems

There can be big differences in the meanings of words with just a slight difference in pronunciation. maatar is airport, but matar is rain. Luckily, it would be difficult to confuse the meaning of those two words in context, but there are others where I have to be pretty careful. My ear and tongue are still having troubles distinguishing some of these differences. I’m not sure how good I’ll get at this since these sorts of things just aren’t all that important in English. I do think I’m getting a better feel for other pronunciation things like sekoon (a stopping of the sound) and shda (a “doubling” of the letter). At least now I realize that I’m getting confused with how pronunciation changes in different parts of the sentence, I used to just pronounce everything the same way. I think that that’s progress….

Isaac

Categories
Yemen

Last night was good

After I got back from using the internet, I took a nap and awoke very very hungry. I called Luchiano and he suggested that we go to a new (new!) pizza place. It turns out that it is the best, and most expensive, pizza here. I’m not a huge fan of thin crusts in general, but the sauce and cheese at this place was amazing. Now if I could only get some real pepperoni over here so they could put it on my pizza… I wonder if they sell it in China? This place is on Hada street, right across from Zorba’s if you ever want to go… The place kept filling up with Italians from the embassy, that has to be a good sign. I also saw two Yemeni beauties without the full getup, just in regular, western clothes. It was quite nice.

Anyway, after dinner, we went back to his place and watched a playoff basketball game. I hadn’t watched basketball in forever… The Suns beat the Lakers in a good game. Got back to my place around 1AM. A quality day…

Isaac

Categories
Yemen

Traffic again

I went down to the Chinese embassy today to get my visa for the upcoming trip. It’s within walking distance, I estimate around a mile and a half. The opening hours are from 8 to 12, so I got up early and went down there. Turns out the Visa office is open at 12, grrr turns out I didn’t have to get up 4 hours before I usually do after all…

Anyway, the embassy stuff went smoothly, I should have my visa on Wed. I did almost get hit by a car twice though. Once was with a guy backing through the intersection! Since he had passed me, I wasn’t paying much attention, but I saw him with my peripheral vision in time… The walk to the embassy at 7:30 this morning was quite nice, it was quiet and easy. When I went back around noon, it was a nightmare. I had gotten there early, so I picked out a spot in the shade and waited. From there I had a good view of the closest intersection. Saw another fender bender and another one that should have been one. The cars ended up touching each other, but no damage occurred this time. If this place does improve economically, something will have to be done about the traffic…

Isaac

Categories
Economics

Maybe I was too hasty

i just listened to a podcast of the Egyptian finance minister and I am very surprised. Egypt has initiated some sweeping economic reforms and they are having an effect. They are on track for a 7% increase in GDP this year and they expect that to continue now that certain things have been put into place. What reforms? They streamlined their infamous customs regulations, completely redid their tax system by slashing tax rates across the board and greatly simplifying the process, and perhaps the most important thing, they are in the process of cutting through the enormous bureaucracy and shrinking the size of their government. Foreign capital investment has gone through the roof and consumption is way up.

He said a couple of things that really struck me as being amazingly astute. First, he noted that Egypt now has a current account surplus, he wants a deficit. You may be more familiar with the hot phrase in the media here, a trade deficit. It’s the same thing.” Wait a minute, isn’t that what everyone here is getting all upset about? isn’t everyone worried that we’re “losing” to the Chinese? Egypt’s finance minister is correct when he says that a positive (exporting more than importing) current account balance means that they are lending money to other countries. What you want to to be borrowing in order to finance capital improvement. Or as he says, “We’re not rich enough to be lending out money.” The other thing he said was in response to a question about the permanency of the reforms he has overseen. Very often, good economic policy is implemented only to have the political winds shift before the effects can be felt. As a (former) prime minister of Belgium said, “We know what to do (economically), the trouble is that we don’t know how to be re elected once we do it.” The finance minister pointed out that what many people want is predictability and stability. He has had people tell him that they wish that the Soviet style government would come back even when it is pointed out to them how much better things are without it. Many people fear change and it holds back real economic improvements. His rather amazing method to try to guard against this is to make sure that the underlaying bureaucracy and control is destroyed. It is easier to reverse course when a small number of people control something, it is far more difficult when that power is spread across millions of people like it is in a market economy.

He went on to make many great points about government power, economic progress, and how people’s lives improve through market processes. It’ s an amazing talk and he was amazingly eloquent considering that English is not his first language. Although he did graduate with a doctorate from MIT, so maybe that’s not all that surprising. I highly recommend anyone interested in developing countries, easing poverty, and economic progress to check it out, it can be found here.

But but but… there’s an elephant in the room and his name is Mubarak. When it comes to freedoms like free press, speech, assembly, etc. he is a typical autocrat. He has a slew of people rotting in jail for disagreeing with him. God only knows how many people have disappeared under his watch. He does not allow any real political dissent and his he is trying to set up his son as his successor to the throne, er, I mean the presidency. I do think that the Muslim Brotherhood will be allowed on the ballot. They are the main opposition party, it’s sad to think that the best chance a country has of getting rid of a terrible leader like Mubarak is by adopting an economic plan that has mired the entire middle east in poverty and corruptiuon. SIGH. Well, maybe Mubarak is fitting my description of the economically savvy SOB that an Arab state needs to get out of it’s hole. I’m probably giving Mubarak too much credit, his only real accomplishment is probably just not getting in the way. Still, it gives me hope.

Isaac

Categories
Yemen

Does Yemen need Pinochet?

There was recently a post over at marginal revolution asking if the Pinochet years in Chile were “worth it.” Pinochet was a total SOB, having people killed and jailed for political reasons and basically being a first class dictator. Here’s the thing, he laid the groundwork for a successful economic framework that has since propelled Chile into the first world, the only country in South America that is presently there. Argentina may have qualified up until 6 or 7 years ago when their economy collapsed due to mismanagement. Tyler Cowen at MR said that even knowing what he knows now he would have tried to stop the torture and killings if he were in a position to do so. That’s a tough call, the prosperity that Chile has experienced since then has saved countless lives and raised the general well being of everyone in that country. Still, the phrase “The ends do not justify the means,” comes to mind, so I guess Tyler is ultimately right.

I do think that Yemen is a little different than Chile pre Pinochet. This country, along with seemingly all of the other “Arabic” countries is ruled by a combination of political elites in the central government and a bunch of decentralized, local sheiks who do not answer to anyone except themselves and perhaps their neighbor on occasion. In addition, the countries are saddled with an amazing amount of corruption. What if a dictator with an economically sound plan and an iron fist were to come to power in Yemen? What if he were someone that was committed to establishing the “rule of law” for the government (in so far as it didn’t interfere with his ambitions, we’re talking about a dictator here) and making the economy grow. What if he was as ruthless about corruption (as it affects every day people) as he was about his political enemies? Let’s assume that he would be able to assert control even over the Bedouins and all of the other tribal sheiks and thereby take actual control of the country? In a worse case scenario, I’m talking about a Saddam Hussein with a free market approach, more likely a Mubarek (of Egypt) with solid economic reasoning.

Yes, political prisoners, disappearances, and murders are terrible, but that goes on every day in these countries as it is. Would there be a huge difference from the run of the mill middle eastern dictator and one that took things to political extremes? The sad fact is that I am willing to bet that the people here would jump at the chance to have a ruthless, but effective leader because it would be a big step up from what they have now. As a matter of fact, ruthlessness is kind of admired here, they might not like or approve of this fictional leader, but they would respect him.

The real trick would be the transition after that leader left. In order to complete the transition from third world morass into a first world nice place to live, a free press would need to be established as well as an independent judiciary along with rights that we (in the USA) take for granted like the freedom of assembly and speech. I really cannot imagine this culture tolerating those rights and so it would eventually devolve into close to what they have now. In other words, a ruthless but economically competent leader is about as good as these countries can hope for in my opinion. Until the culture changes so that someone can say anything they want without fear of reprisal, respects the property rights of others, does not defer to sheiks and the tribal structures for justice, and can trade with anyone they want to, this place will never go anywhere on its own, it will have to be forced by some powerful leader. The brand of Islam practiced here (heavily influenced by Whabism), the related role of women, and tribalism will prevent this place from ever achieving much economically.

The even sadder thing is that we know that the chances of a dictator being interested in anything but his own status and bank account are pretty slim. There are very few dictators that have a good track record when it comes to lifting a country out of poverty. So how do you change a culture?

Isaac

Categories
odds and ends

Isaac’s rules about mullets

Here are two very smple questions to ask yourself if you have or are thinking of getting a mullet.

1) Are you David Bowie?
2) Is it 1976?

If the answer to either of these questions is no, then you have no business having one. One thing I can say about Yemen, the incidence of mullets is almost zero here. The men certainly don’t have them, and who can tell if the women do? I saw a tourist with one today (I think she was German) and I was struck at how few I had seen in recent times…

Isaac

Categories
odds and ends

Oooh, camera lust is back…

Oh boy, do I want one of these… It’s a digital motion picture camera that is supposed to have dynamic range and resolution to die for. It’s only 9 pounds and accepts the standard mount in cine circles (P/L mount… Zeiss anyone?) And yes, it is very expensive (17.5 K for the body plus lenses, battery, etc) but this technology only promises to get cheaper and cheaper. Who knows, maybe I’ll resurrect my film making interest one of these days…
redone_and_cage

Isaac

Categories
Yemen

Saw a person get hit by a car today

He was actually on a bicycle and it was totally his fault. He zoomed right into a blind intersection and a cop car was coming at a right angle to him. BAM! Luckily for the bicyclist, the cop wasn’t going very fast. The guy that got hit walked away, if it had been some of our worse drivers in the area that like to zoom up and down the narrow streets, he’d probably have been killed. The traffic here is chaotic, you really have to watch what you’re doing, but it doesn’t always help. Some of the blogs I like have written about how promising “emergent” traffic patterns are, that is traffic patterns made by the people in the traffic as opposed to following some order that is forced on them. It’s an interesting theory, but totally off base. There are some instances where order directed from the top down is beneficial, and traffic is one of them. Everything is much slower here due to the constant haggling for position in lanes and especially at intersections. It takes almost 20 minutes to go someplace that might take less than ten in DC and that’s with far fewer cars. In addition, accidents are FAR more common here. There isn’t a car here that isn’t dented, scratched, or otherwise scarred from the traffic. I have witnessed or been involved in 5 different fender benders and now a hit bicyclist in the last 5 months here in Sana’a. That’s more than I ever saw or was involved in in 8 years in the DC area! The traffic in DC is much faster, there are many more cars (probably by a factor of 3) and I was driving EVERY DAY back home. One potential benefit to the traffic “system” here is that there probably are fewer serious injuries or deaths per accident due to the slower speeds, but I’m not sure if that is evened out by the sheer number of accidents that occur here. Emergent phenomena are fascinating, but traffic needs a firm hand to make it safe.

Isaac

Categories
Economics

More about Va. Tech and guns

A commentator (mom, is that you?) on my last post about this said that it’s hard to believe that I think it would be better with more guns. Well, I don’t think as many people would have died if one or two of the professors or students involved had a gun on them. Hell, that SOB may not have even tried anything if he knew that someone out there had a gun. Don’t underestimate the deterrent factor on pussies like that guy, he was never able to stand up to anyone that he thought could make fun of him, what do you think he would do if he thought they had a gun?

On the other hand, the prospect of college kids having ready access to guns is really frightening. There’s enough stupid stuff going on on campus. I guess the gun thing could work better if they banned alcohol… I don’t see that working. There’s an obvious trade off between protecting against a rampage where 30 people die and protecting against the typical armed robbery, mugging, or hot headed homicide. In the first, shooting back, or even the threat of shooting back may be enough to limit the body count. The last three are much more problematic as far as “protection” goes. Maybe I’m a pollyanna, but I have always thought that you would be in much more danger of being shot if you engage in a shootout rather than just give the guy your money. Simplistic I know, but I think accurate. There are a number of studies that show that the incidence of those three typical uses of guns goes down in places with easily gotten concealed weapons permits. Deterrence is a big deal.

The bottom line is how afraid are you of another rampage in a school or other place that does not “allow” guns? If you are really afraid of it, there really isn’t any option other than arming some people. Whether that’s students (maybe undercover marshal types), professors, or just an increased police presence probably wouldn’t matter much, the deterrence and defense would be there. I’m not sure that it pays to do that though, how often do these things occur? The best thing would probably be taking people with problems seriously and trying to help them. I think that’s where the real failing was in the Va. Tech incident, not in the security.

Isaac

Categories
Economics

Got an email today…

…thanking me for saying something about Milton Freidman when he died. Honestly, I don’t remember what I wrote, but I’m sure it was in a positive vein. I’m impressed that Rick (from frretochoose.org) tracked me down at the new address to thank me. His organization is the producer of “Free to Choose,” a landmark documentary on freedom and democracy featuring Milton. They’ve got something new in the works, I’ll let him announce it…

“On behalf of Free to Choose Media, I wanted to send a belated thank you for your online comments this past January regarding Milton Friedman. We are the producers of the Free to Choose series and The Power of Choice biography.

I\’d also like to alert you to our newest documentary titled \”The Ultimate Resource,\” which will premiere on HDNet next Tuesday, April 24 at 10PM EST. I apologize for the short notice, but I was hoping you might share this with your readers. In short, we travel to China, Bangladesh, Estonia, Ghana, and Peru and show examples of how people (thank you Julian Simon) – when given the incentives and the tools – are proving they can apply their free choice, intelligence, imagination and spirit to dramatically advance their well-being and that of their families and communities. The program features 2006 Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, Hernando de Soto, James Tooley and Johan Norberg.

For more information including pics and video previews, visit us at http://www.freetochoosemedia.org

Also FYI: the Muhammad Yunus segment is available for teachers at no charge from http://www.izzit.org”

The thanks to Julian Simon is a reference to his most famous insight, that people are the ultimate, and perhaps only real resource. he made the point that none of our so-called natural resources are of any use at all until human ingenuity is applied to them. To use some of Don Beaudreaux’s examples, magnesium was in the ground for millennia, but it wasn’t until recently that people figured out how to use it. Native Americans no doubt cursed that awful black fluid that polluted streams in Pennsylvania, it took some ingenuity to figure out how to use it. According to Julian Simon, if people are allowed to tackle problems without interference, solutions to all problems can be overcome. Anyway, I expect this doc. to be all about human ingenuity in trying circumstances. Check it out if you can!

Isaac