My friend Randy sent me an article from the BBC about the latest report from the UN on Global warming. This is the same report that I had commented on earlier, I had seen the summery of the summery, this is the full blown document (over 1000 pages). My initial ideas still stand, and I was really disappointed in the BBC article (more on that in another post), but I want to address an assumption that all global warming disaster scenarios ignore. As it seems the sea level rising is no longer much of a threat (worst case scenario 25 inches in 100 years, more likely to be around 18 inches), the idea of drought comes to the forefront.
All of the terrible scenarios put forth assume that our technology will stay the same for the next 100 years. Think about the state of the art in 1907 and then think about now. Can you imagine trying to describe an iPod to a person back then? How about a computer or the internet. Most people did not have electricity or running water back then, let alone cars. Around 40% of the population worked on a farm, and if you were a minority or a woman, forget about achieving anything professionally. Hell, women couldn’t even vote! Technology improvements have continued to speed up, there’s no doubt that the next 100 years will see much more progress than the last.
As regards to global warming and it’s (reasonable) consequences, is it such a stretch to think that technologies in desalinization and agriculture won’t improve in the next 100 years? Desalinization plants are here now (see Dubai), so the technology already exists. If it becomes clear that drinking water will be hard to get, you can bet that companies will try like hell to make the best desalinization plants for the least amount of money (because of competition) and that could usher in an entirely new age. With large enough ones, entire countrysides could be irrigated.
All of this is assuming of course that there is nothing done to screw up the progress. A slowing economy will lead to slower rates of technology advances. Government meddling (tariffs, taxes, or granting of monopoly power) in the prices of technology (like desalinization plants) will ultimately lead to higher prices for that technology. The last 100 years is a great example of how far we have come, and I have great faith in our ability to keep improving given the right incentives like profit and real need.
Isaac
global warming economics technology future wealth thrid world development