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Yemen

Revealed preference

I had a good time last, went over to Olga’s place and we chatted for hours. I met her in Yemen last year, so we had plenty of things to talk about. It ended up being largely a major bitch session…

“…can you believe that they’re like that?”
“..it was the most disgusting thing I ever saw.”
“… I mean God, how stupid can someone be?”
“… those poor women.”
“… the government is so screwed up…”
“… the men are clueless…”

and on and on until finally,

“(SIGH) I miss that place.”
quickly, “Me too!”

A tried and true maxim is that if you want to know what people really think, look at what they do and not what they say. In economics, it is called revealed preference, and it’s a powerful thing. Olga and I had plenty to complain about, but I’m going back for another year and she would love to go back for an extended time. Obviously Yemen is doing something right…

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science

Antarctic ice

A recent report says that ice in the antarctic is melting at an increasing rate. This leads to many worries about water levels rising since there is a significant amount of water stored down there. As expected, this news is being used to “prove” how global warming is ruining the planet. There’s only one problem, there isn’t an appreciable rise in temperatures down there.

This article in today’s Washington post is what alerted me to this. They mention that the temperature has not changed and they think that ocean currents are to blame for the melting of the ice. Shortly after that, the “scientist” says that they believe that CO2 forcing is what caused it. Umm, that’s not science, that’s conjecture. Hell, it isn’t even conjecture, it’s a statement of faith. There isn’t any evidence of warming in Antarctica, there isn’t any evidence of warming in the oceans in the southern hemisphere, but melting ice HAS to be caused by CO2 forcings on the “global” temperature…

Don’t get me wrong, rapidly melting antarctic ice is a big problem, I just wish that there was some science involved in determining the cause and any potential corrective actions that need to be taken. a similar situation in the arctic made people gnash their teeth about the plight of the polar bears and how warm things were. It turns out that the temperature had not changed significantly (so by definition, there was no warming) and with a little more analysis from NASA it was determined that changing sea currents are what caused the loss of arctic sea ice. It was also thouight that this trend would turn around soon. Before we jump to conclusions, we need to have some science done…

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Religion

Reading about Islam

I’ve been doing a little reading about Islam while I’ve been here. It’s been a little frustrating trying to learn about it in Yemen, nobody I talk to seems to have any more than a superficial understanding of their religion. Worse, they have zero experience with other religions, that makes it particularly difficult to converse or to find common ground.

I was reduced to picking up a copy of “Islam for Dummies,” Don’t laugh, it’s a decent enough introduction. I’ve also bought some books on Sufis and another on the various sects and divisions. I’ve learned a few interesting things…

Muslims see Jesus as a very important prophet, but not divine. This I knew and I though was one of the basic differences between Muslims and Christians. Muslims do believe in Jesus’ virgin birth, that caught me by surprise. They hold Mary in very high regard (she is supposedly one of the three “purest” women of history), that too surprised me a bit. Here’s the thing, with just a few questions about the virgin birth, things get pretty murky pretty fast.

If you accept the idea of Jesus’ virgin birth, it leads to some tricky issues regarding His paternity. If Mary was a virgin, then who impregnated her? She couldn’t do it herself obviously, it must have been God. It doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch to then consider God as the father of Jesus, or to put it another way, that Jesus was the son of God. I’m not quite sure how muslims wriggle out of this, it would seem to me that you either believe that Mary was not a virgin or you believe that Jesus was the son of God. What other choices are there?

I was also struck by the seeming silliness of the basic Sunni/Shia divide. The Shia believe that only members of the prophet’s family should be Caliph, specifically, only descendants of the prophet’s nephew Ali should be Caliph. OK, fair enough, but there are two problems with this. First, Ali’s decedents died out 10 generations after Ali. Many Shia get around this by claiming the existence of a “hidden” imam. The story with 12ver shia that the 11th “correct” caliph had a son disappear when he was 4 years old. That son is still alive and will return at the end times. Seems to be a bit of a stretch and a bit of a cop out made just to keep the shia way of doing things relevant. I dunno, it sounds weird to me.

The bigger problem with the Shia/Sunni split is that there hasn’t been a caliphate since 1924, and even then it wasn’t regarded by many muslims as being a true caliphate. Since then, the muslim world has gone very far away from a unified view of things and the chances of a new caliphate coming along to unify things is zero. So why still fight over whether or not Ali and his decedents were the right caliph all those years ago? It’s puzzling to me, and I need to do some more reading to try to understand why this is still considered important long after the disputed title has faded into history.

I plan on getting most of the way through my sects book on the flight to Doha, I hope to have a better idea of things and be able to do some more intelligent research this time around in Yemen.

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Economics

Michigan idiocy

The republican candidates are campaigning in Michigan for tomorrow’s primary. I don’t know why I’m still surprised, but I am. Every year, politicians promise that they’ll do things to improve the economy, to improve people’s standards of living. Just once, and especially in Michigan, I’d like someone to say that they aren’t going to do a damn thing for a particular state. It should not be the federal government’s job (and therefore everyone’s money) to help a place that has consistently shot itself in the foot. It’s one thing if every state is in bad shape. I could at least understand the argument that the feds should do something about it, but one state? C’mon…

If Michigan’s wants to improve, it will have to do it on its own. If the people think that the state is underperforming, they should take a look at some of the states that are doing well and then model their approach on the successes of those states. Instead, they engage in wishful thinking. It’s time that things changed in Michigan, and it’s time for the people of Michigan to do something instead of blaming other people (the Chinese, the Indians, etc.) and expecting other people to solve their problems.

Michigan, heal thyself!

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Arabic

Still in the states

I’m up at my aunt’s place for a couple more days, then I’ll head back down to VA for the final flurry of seeing people before I leave. It’s going to be a little harried, but it’ll be good. I’m really enjoying my trip up here in Connecticut, I love visiting these guys. This will be the last time that I’ll be able to visit my aunt and cousin at the same time, Beth is getting married in July and will move out to the western part of New York. I saw some pictures of her in her wedding dress and almost shed a tear, she’s so lovely. I now have an idea of how fathers feel when their daughter gets married…

I haven’t done a damn bit of Arabic this entire trip. I knew that was going to happen, I briefly thought about not bringing my books this time, but I figured that carrying them around would be my penance for not using them. I think that I’ve made the mistake of equalling the language with the situation in Yemen. It’s just depressing over there. When I tried to get a list of acceptable songs together for my students, I listened to several Beatles songs. I distinctly remember thinking that one particular song had been recorded in 1967, think about how much the US, Europe, and our culture has changed in that time. Now think about what Yemen must have been like in 1967. There weren’t many places that had electricity, there weren’t any paved roads between cities, and they were essentially living like their ancestors lived 500 years ago. Many places in Yemen haven’t changed much since 1967, and it’s depressing. How can a place stand still (or go backwards) for so long? Sure, there are a lot of symptoms that we can point to, but the causes are buried and difficult to find. I have to find some way of divorcing those thoughts from the language itself, maybe then I will attack my studies like I used to…

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