Month: June 2007

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Yemen

FGM and the yemeni public

According to a recent poll, 65% of people in Yemen think that new laws are the solution to Yemen’s FGM (Female Genital Mutilation) problem. The other options that were offered in the poll were education and religious training. We’ll ignore for the time being that FGM is already “illegal’ in Yemen, I think that this poll shows that people still have a real faith in government power. Why I have no idea. With problems like this, top down “solutions” just don’t work. The laws are unenforceable. If you want to make a change in this area, it has to come from the bottom up. For me, education is the key. In a really religious place like this, religious education might help as well, but I would hope that pure humanitarian reasons would be enough to stop FGM. My gut feeling is that until women have some power in these countries, not much will change….

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Yemen

Interesting Yemen fact of the day…

Over half the population of Yemen is below the age of 15. Poor countries have a much higher birth rate than rich ones, for a variety of reasons. People that are worried about “overpopulation” should always pursue policies that improve the economic situations of poor countries…

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science

A good summery about global warming

Warren over at Coyote Blog has written an excellent wrap up that summarizes the skeptic’s issues with the anthropological cause of global warming. It’s still a work in progress, but all of the “data” is there. My skepticism has always come from the statistical realm, all of the data and models I have seen are a mess, and the CO2/warming trends only match reasonably well if you are really lenient and ignore about 40 of the last 100 years. It’s one thing to eyeball a regression or correlation and think it’s pretty close only to find the data doesn’t fit. It’s quite another to eyeball a regression or correlation, realize that it doesn’t fit at all, and then futz with the data until it sorta, kinda works. Mann’s “hockey stick” has been entirely discredited thank God, it wasn’t even mentioned in the last release of the UN’s report even though it figured prominently in the previous version. That was 5 years ago.. settled science my ass…

Warren also brings to light some other interesting facts such as:

CO2’s effect on the atmosphere is one of diminishing returns. Co2 can only raise the temperature by about 1.5-2 degrees celsius. All of the other temperature increases in the various models are ascribed to “positive feedback” mechanisms that so far no one has been able to predict or even demonstrate that exist. The earth has been warmer in the past, and yet these positive feedback loops did not kick in and turn the earth into Venus.

In addition to assuming positive feedback loops, there is the assumption that there will be no negative feedback loops despite the fact that stable systems tend to (and always have) lean towards negative feedback systems. Water vapor is a prime example. Water vapor is much more efficient as a greenhouse gas than CO2 is. If a lot of water vapor is put into the atmosphere, it will cause much more warming than CO2, assuming that it doesn’t form clouds instead. Clouds are a negative feedback process, they tend to cool the earth. Negative feedback is not included in any of the models used even though they are much more likely than run away positive feedback…

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has indeed increased, from .0280% of the atmosphere before the industrial revolution to a whopping .0378% currently. That would be less than 4 one hundredths of a percent. As he says, if you were taking a trip from LA to NYC, .0378% wouldn’t get you off the runway at LAX…

And there’s a bunch more, alternative models that show at least as much correlation as the CO2 models and in some cases much tighter fits, measurement issues, econometric issues (The UN used a calculation that assumes that North Korea, South Africa, Libya and Turkey will all have a higher GDP than the US by 2100. They estimate future CO2 production on these figures. It’s safe to say that they’ll be a ways off…) and more.

“But Isaac, isn’t the downside significantly large to just be careful?” It has gotten to the point that not only would I have to be wrong, but the the overestimated worst case scenario would have to be off by a factor of 5 or more for any of us to worry. The UN’s worst case by 2100 is a 15-17 inch rise in the sea level. What people (at the UN and elsewhere) are purposing in order to “fix” this would stop the economic progress of developing countries (China and India are on the cusp of breaking out of the crushing, lethal poverty that they have been caught in for centuries) and hold us way back from where we would be otherwise. As wealth grows so do life spans, peaceful relations, and yes, even environmental quality (would Brazil cut down more rain forest if it were wealthy or if it were poor?). In my opinion, people either have total doomsday scenarios in mind that are totally unfounded, or they really don’t understand the cost that would be required in order to deal with it. Or maybe both…

I have sent this paper to two of my readers that have told me that they don’t agree with my skepticism, if anyone else wants a copy, let me know and I will forward it to you.

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Rants

Two jokes

A couple of jokes without comment from me on how good/tasteless they are…

President Bush has a press conference and announces, “Tomorrow we will kill 5 million arabs and 1 Israeli.”
“Umm, Mr. President, why will you kill one Israeli?”
The president shrugs and turns to one of his aides. “See, I told you… no one cares about arabs at all…”

This one is imported from France where they have their own “special” problems with Muslims integrating into the culture…

A little boy from Algeria goes to school in France for the first time.

teacher: What’s your name?
kid: Abdul Rahman bin Suliman Adel Muha…
teacher: No, no that will never do, you’re in France now, you should have a French name. From now on you will be called Jean Paul.
kid: OK.

The kid then goes home after school and his father meets him at the door.
Father: Abdul Rahman, how was your first day of school?
kid: I’m not Abdul Rahman anymore, my new name is Jean Paul.
Father: WHAT!? How dare you refuse your heritage, how dare you turn your back on your family?
POW! The father punches the kid in the face.
The next day the kid goes to school with a black eye.
Teacher: Jean paul, what happened?
kid: I wasn’t French for more than 2 hours before some fucking arab punched me!

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food

I give up on seafood

I have never liked fish. Actual fish that is, the kind you get in restaurants or is prepared by people that like fish. It’s not that I think it’s disgusting, I just don’t like it. I have also drifted away from seafood in general. As recently as college I would eat shrimp and fried clams. No more, it just doesn’t appeal. One of the more popular places to eat here is the fish souk. You go to a shop and pick out the fish you want, they clean it for you and then you take it over to a nearby restaurant and they cook it for you. Everyone raves about it and when I tell them that I don’t like fish they always say the same thing, “You just haven’t had FRESH fish before..” Actually I have, multiple times, I don’t like it. Tonight I gave in and decided to try again. We got some sort of shark and a bunch of shrimp. Everyone raved about the shark, I thought it tasted like… fish. Seriously, I have no idea what people see in fish, I can’t really imagine it as anything that I would want to eat, let alone crave. It’s so, bleah with a hint of that special “fish” flavor that I dislike so much. Predictably, whenever I’ve tried fish that others were eating, the favorite around the table was always the fish that tasted the least fishy. Go figure… So anyway, I’m done. I have made up my mind, I do not like fish, I have tried at least 6 or 7 different types (and yes, they were all fresh) and I have found nothing to recommend it. If you are going to stay here for a while, and you like fish, you should definitely check this place out. For those of you like me, don’t bother, it’s same as any other fish…

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Yemen

Dogs

Muslims do not like dogs. There are multiple references in the Koran of how dirty and “weak” dogs are. Muhammad (PBUH) realized that Gabriel was not coming to him whenever a dog was in his house. Once he got rid of the dog, the revelations continued. Of course I’m not sure why Gabriel didn’t just tell him to get rid of the mutt instead of letting him figure it out on his own… Muhammad (PBUH) also changed the direction his army was taking when they came across a bitch giving birth along the way. He saw this as a sign, changed directions, and went on to victory.

People here go out of their way to chase dogs and kill them when they are in a car. Many dogs get poisoned just to get rid of them. Not coincidentally, there are probably 100 cats for every dog here. I go weeks without seeing a single dog, but the cats are everywhere… Cats are considered much cleaner and wholesome here. I happen to like both cats and dogs, but I have been a little shocked at the level of hatred of dogs here. If you’re not going to have a pets, I can sort of understand it. Cats are fairly clean as far as where they go to the bathroom and they keep the rodents under control. Dogs, on the other hand, are pretty messy. I had also heard of problems of dogs forming packs and causing real troubles harassing people.

Last night a group of dogs were fighting along our street. There may have been as few as 8 dogs involved, but it sounded like a 1000. it sounded as though they were killing each other, the barking, growling, yelping, screeching, etc were quite a racket. I like dogs, well domestic, trained ones at least. Feral ones are not on my list of favorites… Anyway, I like dogs, but if I had a gun, I probably would have gone out and started to kill them. The noise they were making was truly blood curdling and sounded downright dangerous. If I had heard that while I was laying in my bed when I was 5 or 6, I’d be terrified of dogs to this day. I guess I’m glad that there aren’t nearly as many dogs as cats here.

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Religion

Done with the Old Testament

OK, I’ve basically finished the Old Testament. I did not read every single word, I really don’t have the patience. Many of the books (especially the prophets) were simply the warnings about the judgement of God on Israel and Judah. They talk about how the people and kings of Israel and Judah worshiped other gods and how angry God was over and over and over. Seriously, I estimate that 3/4 of the Old Testament can be paraphrased with, “You have sinned against God, you and your descendants will be punished by marauding armies from other nations. You will mostly be wiped out, but the people that survive will come back from exile and enjoy a great life as long as they do what they are supposed to.” If idol worship isn’t a problem, you can pretty much ignore the vast majority of the Old Testament if you’re a Christian. I also did not have the patience to read about the judgement on the other nations like Babylon and Edom. What are we supposed to do with prophecies that have already come to pass? Why should we care about these particular passages when those nations and gods are long gone? There were a few opaque references to what I assume is the Messiah. Most of them are pretty vague, and there is more than a little reaching needed in order to think that the Messiah is involved at all. On top of that, for every sentence about the Messiah, there are probably 100-150 about Babylon or the Philistines. I also couldn’t help but notice the complete lack of prophecies about the Romans, Islam, or the Nazis. Sure, maybe God expected everyone to follow Jesus, but there are zero prophecies about Christians and their troubles with the aforementioned groups. The signal to noise ratio is pretty low in most of the books. I really had to search for anything of value that I could take away from most books.

There are exceptions of course. Jonah was illuminating, and mercifully short. Job is, in my mind, the standout in the Old Testament. It asks some pretty direct, critical questions of God, about faith, and the payout we should expect. Some of those questions are answered, sort of. It’s complicated, but at least it deals with some real religious issues and isn’t mostly irrelevant history like the rest of the Old Testament. Read Job, maybe Jonah, but don’t bother with the rest unless you need to know every prophecy against those good for nothing Israelites…

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Yemen

My hair in Yemen

Nobody here has hair like mine. Jenny has accurately referred to it as “baby Hair.” It’s very, very fine and straight. The slightest puff of wind will blow my hair everywhere, I have to be really careful and make sure my hair is completely dry before I go out, otherwise it’s liable to dry in whatever position it gets blown into. The kids here think it’s hilarious, I must get told 15 times that my hair is messed up on windy days.

The locals’ hair is usually very short and fairly wiry. There’s a fair amount of African blood in the people here and the men almost always keep their hair very short. Interestingly, the few women I’ve seen here without a hijab have long, straight hair. I don’t know if it’s the rarity of seeing women’s hair, but their hair always looks quite nice to me. The last guy that cut my hair did ok except for my cowlicks, he pretty much screwed those up. I’ll need a cut again soon, but I’m hoping I can do that when I’m at home where my hair type is a little more common.

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travel

Done!

I have booked my flight home! I’ll be leaving here on the 27th of june and will arrive back in Sana’a on the 1st of Aug. A nice break… I was having trouble with the online booking, so I went to my local ticket agent yesterday to inquire about a price. Emirates does not fly to DC, but they do contract with other airlines in the US. She was unable to figure out the connector from NYC to DC, so she told me to come back today. Most businesses here close for lunch, usually from 1 till 4. I waited and waited, but they didn’t open up, so I walked down the street to another agent. Once I told him that I wanted to fly with Emirates (due to my frequent flyer miles, the good price, and the shortest trip) but all the way to DC, he balked. I explained to him that I know that they do not fly all the way to DC, but they have partners that they work with. He started to look, but then he stopped and told me to go to the Emirates office to do that. The office is way the hell on the other side of the city, if I had wanted to go there, I would have done it in the first place… I stormed home, grabbed my laptop, and tried using the site again. Pow! No problems to speak of today. So I bought the tickets online and even got bonus miles for doing it!

I’m really looking forward to this, I need to be recharged. I thought the Beijing trip would do it, but I need a longer detox period… Anyway, I hope to see a bunch of you guys soon!

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travel

Might go back to the states soon

I’m thinking of going back to the states for a month or so. I’ve been going back and forth due to the cost, but I’m this close to saying, “Screw it, I want to go back home for a while…” I still have to do some final number crunching, but I’m pretty sure I’m going to do it. My Uncle will be visiting my father early in July, I think I’ll target my arrival for around that time. I hope to get around and see a bunch of you, let me know days and times that will be good for that!